Why wind power doesn't fall in love with new energ

2022-07-25
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Why didn't wind power fall in love with new energy vehicles

Abstract: having seen the past and present life of subsidy policies in the wind power and photovoltaic industries, it will be easier to understand the phenomenon of cheating on subsidies, declining subsidies, tightening policies and institutional changes in the new energy automobile industry

the bustling new energy automobile industry has attracted many other industries. For example, many photovoltaic enterprises at home and abroad cross-border new energy automobiles. Instead of using a special Rockwell hardness tester for pipes, they only designed a solar concept car and installed photovoltaic panels in the charging station. However, Lao Wang wind power, next door to photovoltaic power, has no movement at all. It is a strange thing to say that there have been wind energy concept cars in foreign countries, but there are no domestic enterprises to follow suit

there are both technical and economic reasons, but I think there is at least one more reason, that is, as a former member of the subsidy industry, wind power may be able to see the future of fresh energy vehicles, and understand that the rapid development of the industry cannot be stimulated by short-term subsidies, but needs the hearts of craftsmen who are motivated to run long distances

subsidies exist at the beginning of the industry

in China, the three major industries of wind power, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles belong to the new energy industry, and each has experienced or experienced changes in the industry subsidy system, and each is at different stages of its own industry life cycle. After a little analysis, it can be found that there are many similarities in its development process. The experience and lessons of wind power PV are worth learning for practitioners of new energy vehicles

although attempts were made in the 1980s, the real large-scale and systematic development of wind power and photovoltaic in China was after the promulgation of the renewable energy law in 2006. At that time, a series of policies established several major events to promote the development of the industry, and these events seemed to reflect the new energy automobile industry:

1. The full priority of renewable energy power generation such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation was given, and the priority of conventional energy such as hydropower, nuclear power and thermal power was reduced in turn - equivalent to buying new energy vehicles with unlimited numbers. This led to the emergence of a hydraulic 4-ball experimental machine, and the use of traditional vehicles was restricted, Vehicles with substandard emissions are not allowed to enter the Fifth Ring Road at all

2. Set a higher electricity price for renewable energy than that of traditional thermal power, and the difference will be paid by the renewable energy extracted from the electricity sales - equivalent to buying a new energy vehicle, which will be subsidized according to the actual mileage

3. As the industry has just started, the government mainly promotes the large-scale development of the industry through concession bidding. Since 2003, bidding has been conducted every year to test the appropriate electricity price and development mode. In addition, in order to promote the production capacity and strength of domestic equipment, it is also required that the equipment localization rate of the concession project reach 70%—— It is equivalent to the bidding and procurement of new energy buses in various regions, and it is required to be made in China

4. Provide tax incentives and focus on downstream. 50% vat of wind farm shall be collected and refunded immediately, and the income tax of wind power and photovoltaic projects shall be exempted and halved. If the upstream enterprises can be identified as high-tech enterprises that need key support from the state, the income tax will be levied at 15%. In order to encourage the manufacturing end to research and develop megawatt machines and key components, an incentive policy has been issued to subsidize the first 50 wind turbine generators of enterprises that meet the supporting conditions at the standard of 600 yuan/kW

subsidy method is the key

the strategy and policy of wind power and photovoltaic are highly consistent, but the development direction of phenolic foam prepared by heating method is far from the same

the wind power industry with "kilowatt hour subsidy" has developed relatively healthily: after several rounds of concession bidding, the government has gradually clarified the economy of wind power projects. In 2009, the benchmark electricity price was issued and the project approval authority was delegated. Since then, the installed capacity of the industry has exploded. The wind power industry has been implementing the "kilowatt hour subsidy" mode, and the subsidy can only be obtained for the actual power generation. The project needs long-term stable and continuous power generation according to the 20-year service life to achieve the expected return. Therefore, the quality of fan equipment, construction and operation needs to be qualified, and the industry as a whole is healthy and upward. Although there have also been price wars by newcomers like Sinovel, the industry as a whole has not been hurt by the rapid expansion and legal proceedings. Instead, regulators and practitioners have learned the lessons of blind expansion and become more cautious and rational

the photovoltaic power generation directly subsidized in the construction sector has been cheated: unlike the coordinated development of the manufacturing end and the power generation end of the wind power industry, China's photovoltaic manufacturing end has long formed a huge capacity and exported to developed countries in Europe and the United States with the help of cost advantages. The less domestic application is mainly due to the cost performance. In the early stage, the cost of photovoltaic equipment is high (about 50% higher than wind power), and the power generation efficiency is low (about 50% lower than wind power). After the 2008 financial crisis and a series of adverse events such as anti-dumping and countervailing, the export of PV modules shrank, the domestic PV manufacturing industry was in turmoil, and Suntech, Savills, Tianwei and other well-known enterprises applied for bankruptcy and reorganization. In 2009, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of science and technology and the Energy Administration issued the "golden sun demonstration project" policy, which grants 50% of the total investment of the project, and 70% of the total investment of independent power generation projects in remote areas without electricity. All the subsidies are allocated by the Ministry of finance. After the completion of the project, the owner of the project can apply for subsidies

this policy is the same as the early policies of the new energy vehicle industry, and the effect can be imagined naturally

in June, 2013, the National Audit Office published the audit results of 5044 projects for energy conservation and utilization, renewable energy and comprehensive utilization of resources. Among them, 8 golden sun projects that used funds illegally were investigated and punished. The ways of violating the rules mainly include: fabricating false declaration materials to obtain or defraud funds; Misappropriating or misappropriating funds for production, operation and business expenses; Obtain funds in violation of regulations by means of "reporting to the big and building small", repeated reporting, etc. The total amount of illegal subsidies involved in the eight projects was 210million yuan. It accounted for 2.58% of the total capital scale of the golden sun project, and the total scale of the eight projects was 64.298 MW, accounting for 29% of the total installed capacity

In my opinion, the mistakes of the golden sun policy at least include:

1. We should not directly subsidize the construction link, let alone adopt the subsidy mode of cost plus proportion. Moreover, there is no upper limit on the cost, and there is no supervision on the cost. In front of a slot machine that earns 50 cents a piece, qualified rational economic people will continue to play

2. The subsidy time point should not be "completion" but "combination". Completion is a prerequisite for consolidation, but it can truly reflect the quality and safety of the project. It's as if new energy vehicles can't just be assembled, they have to be sold, and finally they have to be driven. Many golden sun projects are shoddy and can receive subsidies after the photovoltaic panels are paved. After receiving the subsidy, many projects are really just basking in the sun

before the Audit Office announced the audit results, the shameful Ministry of Finance issued the notice on the liquidation of financial subsidy funds for the golden sun demonstration project in may2013, specifying the liquidation methods for the projects included in the subsidy scope according to the completion, consolidation time and situation. Although there is no explicit agreement, the golden sun subsidy system has been substantially abolished since then

in August, 2013, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on giving play to the role of price leverage to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic industry returned to the benchmark price and, like wind power, was subsidized according to the actual power generation. In addition, the price of PV modules has decreased and the conversion rate has increased. Since then, China's PV installed capacity has increased rapidly. At present, the construction cost per watt has been lower than that of wind power. In some regions, the bidding price of PV projects has been close to or even lower than the benchmark price of wind power, which is likely to catch up with and surpass

the perplexed regulator

saw the golden sun policy and wondered whether the practitioners in the new energy industry were familiar. Yes, the early policy of new energy vehicle subsidies also adopted a similar direct subsidy model

in September, 2013, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of science and technology, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice on continuing the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, defining the subsidy scheme for new energy vehicles in. The subsidy object appears to be consumers, but the subsidy funds are directly paid to the new energy vehicle manufacturers, and consumers purchase the subsidy at the sales price after deducting the subsidy

subsidy funds are allocated in advance quarterly and cleared annually. After the product is sold, the production enterprise shall submit an application for the advance allocation of subsidy funds to the finance and science and technology departments where the enterprise is registered at the end of each quarter. The four ministries and commissions shall organize the review, and the advance allocation of subsidy funds shall be verified and liquidated at the end of the year

the subsidy policy of cash back upon sale provides a new cash machine for speculators

since 2009, the central government has subsidized new energy vehicles. By the end of 2015, the central government has allocated a total of 33.435 billion yuan in subsidies, and the problem of fraud has emerged. At the beginning of 2016, the Ministry of Finance conducted a special inspection on 90 major new energy vehicle manufacturers, involving 401000 new energy vehicles that have received and applied for central financial subsidies in, and spot checked the operation status of 133000 new energy vehicles that have been sold. The problems of cheating subsidies, declaring subsidies in advance without sales, and idle vehicles after receiving subsidies abound, and five typical cases such as Suzhou jimsy Bus Manufacturing Co., Ltd. were exposed

what I can't understand is that the golden sun policy and the new energy subsidy policy are highly overlapped. The Ministry of finance, the Ministry of science and technology, and the national development and Reform Commission/energy administration are all deeply involved. Many experts and scholars who often participate in the new energy vehicle forum will also appear in the wind power and photovoltaic forums. The one-time direct subsidy policy has fully proved the disadvantages and fraud in the photovoltaic industry. Why three months later, Will the new energy automobile industry repeat its old tricks

I think the government may have had some psychological expectations for compensation fraud when it introduced the policy, but they think some things are more important. For example, to promote the rapid expansion of industrial production capacity, attract social capital and stimulate economic growth, after comprehensive consideration, it was considered that this subsidy method was the most appropriate and feasible at that time. After the scale, production capacity and social effects of the industry are achieved, subsidies will be gradually tightened, supervision strengthened and development standardized

no subsidy is really safe

there has always been an unsolved mystery in the wind power industry, that is, how many years the benchmark electricity price including subsidies has been implemented

there was a saying in the bid winning documents during the concession bidding period that the bid winning price was implemented in the first 30000 hours of power generation (about the first year of project operation according to different power generation capacity), and then the local average electricity price at that time was implemented. In the benchmark electricity price policy, the policy makers have never said the validity period of the policy

for this reason, the industry's happy viewers will think that the subsidy will continue to be mild and optimistic about the rare earth price for 20 years in the project life. Although there has been a saying that the same price will prevail in 2020, the old and the new will be broken, and the old and the old will be the same

we started to invest in wind power in 2010. The person in charge at that time had many years of experience in international wind power investment. From international experience, subsidies in the new energy industry will not exist for a long time. Therefore, we followed the practice of concession projects in the valuation model and believed that wind power projects are subsidized for 30000 hours at present, but not thereafter. Moreover, in the process of internal and external industry and project display, they will deliberately weaken the subsidy characteristics of wind power projects and emphasize other advantages. "Industries that can only make profits by relying on subsidies for a long time are not worth investing in."

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