Will spandex snow in December

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Will spandex "drift snow" in December

since December, spandex has continued the downward trend at the end of last month, and both spandex 20d and 40d products have seen a decline of yuan/ton. Due to the reduction of subsequent orders in many terminal industries, weaving enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other regions continue to shrink in operation, the downstream demand for spandex is also shrinking, and the inventory of spandex manufacturers has increased from the previous 10 days to the current 15 days. So whether the current spandex market will be like the current weather "cooling snow"? The author believes that it is unlikely that the market will fall to the level before the sharp rise in November by the end of this year

I. The price of raw materials is hovering at a high level, and the demand in the downstream market is still good.

since the beginning of December, the new single offer price of PTMEG manufacturers in the field of spandex in December has increased significantly, which has also promoted the rise of the spot market in the field of PTMEG spandex in the domestic region. There has been a certain upward trend in both US dollar and RMB transactions. The general sales price of external PTMEG is USD/T, the higher price of tmeg for some p lead screws and nuts as performance components is USD 3900/T, and the lower price of PTMEG is USD 3400/T. The pure MDI market also fluctuated to some extent. Since December, the offer of Wanhua and other manufacturers in the domestic region has continued to rise, giving the market some cost support. The relatively high transaction price of MDI spot in East China is yuan/ton, the transaction price in South China is yuan/ton, and the general price is also between yuan/ton

in December, Yantai Wanhua company said that the supply of goods was basically stable, and they were all supplied according to the planned quantity. At the same time, the impact of Bayer maintenance on the market would be limited. NPU Japan plant maintained high load operation in November after its start-up. The market demand of MDI products in 2011 is expected to be optimistic. The local market demand in Europe in 2011 is expected to increase by% or even 8% over this year. The manufacturers' ability to bear the pressure of raw materials is also relatively weakened, and their expectations for the price reduction of pure MDI are correspondingly increased. It is becoming more difficult to keep the price of pure MDI high. If the market supply increases in December, the selling and cash out situation may increase significantly. If the price breaks through 21000 yuan/ton but cannot be directly used for design calculation, the price may continue to decline and increase, but the basic market is expected to remain flat in the short term

II. Various data of the spandex industry show that the production and operation status is stable

according to the statistical data of the National Bureau of statistics and the customs, the output of spandex fiber in China in October 2010 was 23700 tons, an increase of 2.6% month on month; In October, 948 tons of pure spandex fiber were imported and 2766 tons of pure spandex fiber were exported, which showed a downward trend compared with September; 493 tons of coated yarn are imported and 137 tons are exported; The newly increased resources (output + import of pure spandex + import of coated yarn) were 25100 tons, and the net increased resources (newly increased resources - export of pure spandex - export of coated yarn, i.e. apparent demand) were 22200 tons, which showed an upward trend compared with September. These data show that the new resources of spandex fiber are relatively strong, but the import and export at home and abroad have a downward trend

from the production, operation and profitability of the spandex industry, the gross profit margin of the spandex industry in October was 12.16%, 0.30% higher than the 11.86% in September; The sum of operating, management and financial expenses (three expenses ratio) was 4.13%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with September; The profit margin was 7.5%, the non recurring profit and loss ratio was 0.53%, and the inventory ratio was 60.47%. Compared with the previous month, it increased by 1.81%, and the loss area was 1.41%. Compared with the previous month, it was declining, and the situation was improving. These data show that the current operation of Spandex Enterprises is running well

in the first 10 months of this year, the spandex industry actually completed an investment of 2.146 billion yuan, an increase of 30.44% compared with the actual investment of 1.646 billion yuan in the same period last year. Most hydraulic systems adopt throttling speed regulation; So far this year, there are 12 construction projects, an increase of 23.40% year on year. The number of new projects is 9, an increase of 81.63% compared with 5 projects in the same period last year; So far, there are 4 completed projects in the spandex industry. These data show that the proportion of investment in spandex has begun to increase this year, and new projects are also increasing. The whole industry is developing in a positive direction

III. The anxiety about raising interest rates has eased, and the domestic monetary policy has set the tone

over the weekend, the people's Bank of China announced that from December 20, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions has been raised by 0.5 percentage points, which is the sixth increase in the deposit reserve ratio in the year. Previously, the central bank may have been worried about the influx of hot money. It prudently used the means of raising interest rates and frequently raised the deposit reserve ratio. The current deposit reserve ratio reached 18.5%, another record high. After the CPI exceeded 4% in October, the CPI broke through the Fifth Five Year Plan in November, reaching 5.1% and a 28 month high. The National Bureau of Statistics said that the CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year in January, but the annual CPI should be controlled within the control target range. The national development and Reform Commission also said on the 11th that the CPI increase in November was the highest of this year, and the CPI may fall back to less than 5% in December. The worst data of this year has been released. The increase in the deposit reserve ratio has responded to the data in November. The expected fall in the CPI data in December will ease the pressure of another interest rate increase in the year, which is good for the commodity market

once the central bank raises interest rates again, it may raise interest rates for three to four consecutive times, with a maximum increase of 1 percentage point. At the same time, the intensity of tightening in the first half of next year is significantly greater than that in the second half. This is also because there is great pressure on CPI in the first half of next year. The tail raising factors are concentrated in January and June. Most Turks still voted for him at the critical moment of the presidential election. Considering the upward trend of CPI month on month, the CPI peak next year may appear in the second quarter

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